Moat Index
Companies· AI Labs

OpenAI

Moat score

The category verb, with the biggest consumer footprint in AI and the most complicated dependencies.

MOATE3.1Deep
3.1 Deep
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DimensionMOATECommunity
Switching costsweight 15ChatGPT habit, memory, and connectors hold 900 million weekly users; API switching remains easy.6—
Network effectsweight 15A usage-data flywheel and a modest app ecosystem; not a true network.5—
Scale & cost advantageweight 12The largest consumer AI footprint and a $750 billion compute plan through 2030.7—
Brand & pricing powerweight 12ChatGPT is the verb. 50 million paying subscribers is pricing power in a category that mostly gives itself away.9—
Cornered resourceweight 12Talent and frontier models; the Microsoft entanglement complicates ownership of the advantage.7—
Distribution controlweight 12Owns its consumer surface, but no operating system and no default anywhere.6—
Disruption resilienceweight 12Compute cost, open-weight models, and Google all press on it at once.6—
Independenceweight 10Microsoft, compute suppliers, governance structure, and regulators each hold real leverage.4—

Assessed . How the score works →

Analysis

4 articles
NvidiaOpenAI · 4 min

Nvidia's Bank

In March, Jensen Huang said Nvidia was probably done writing big checks to AI labs. The money never stopped. It changed form, from equity stakes into loan guarantees and financing deals, and now roughly a quarter of Nvidia's business comes from customers it helps pay for.

AnthropicOpenAI · 4 min

The Prospectus Test

Anthropic's leaked IPO filing shows the fastest revenue ramp in software history. OpenAI is nearing $70 billion a year. We re-scored both moats against the numbers. Revenue went up. One moat went down.

AmazonOpenAI · 5 min

Amazon's Harness

The AI labs cut their prices in the same week. Amazon gave away the software that runs their models, on every cloud. The brains are getting cheap, and Amazon wants to own the body.

Score it yourself

How strong is OpenAI's moat?

Question 1 of 8

Switching costs

Switching costs · weight 15

How painful — in money, time, risk, retraining — is it for a customer to leave?

5